The UCF Knights were one of four teams to enter the Big 12 ahead of the 2023 season, but their established success in the AAC unfortunately didn’t carry over in the first campaign.
The four newcomers were a combined 4-24 against legacy Big 12 schools, and the Knights lost their first five Big 12 games before finishing the regular season by going 3-1 in their final four – the single loss being a 24-23 stunner to Texas Tech.
The Knights lost multi-year starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee but might’ve upgraded after landing a former All-SEC selection at signal caller. But were they able to address enough of the other issues to make some noise in the Big 12 this season?
Here’s what you should expect from the Knights in 2024.
UCF OFFENSE: Star-Studded Backfield in Orlando
Arkansas’ quarterback KJ Jefferson comes into the fray and brings several years of experience in the SEC with him. In his first two seasons as a starter, Jefferson had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 45-9. Terrible offensive line hindered his success in 2023, but with over 2,000 yards rushing and plenty of passing success behind him, Jefferson is one of the best additions that the Big 12 will see this season.
RJ Harvey returns at running back, and that alone should scare Big 12 defensive coordinators. But when you add Jefferson at quarterback and the addition of Peny Boone (Toledo) – who won the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2023 after rushing for over 1,400 yards – the Knights’ rushing attack looks downright scary.
Kobe Hudson and Xavier Townsend return and look like they could be a huge issue for opposing secondaries, but the addition of Auburn leading receiver Ja’Varrius Johnson gives them another option that could spread the field even thinner.
The offensive line has three players who started games a season ago but get the most out of transfers Wes Dorsey and Jabari Brooks to reach the heights that last year’s unit did. The offensive staff seems to like what they’ve got up front, and if everything comes together like they expect, it’ll be hard to keep them out of the end zone.
Related: Three Most-Underrated Big 12 Football Teams for 2024
UCF DEFENSE: A Retooled Unit Primed to Surprise
UCF’s defense, particularly against the run, was the main reason the Knights finished the year with seven losses. They were among the worst rush defenses in the Power Five, and Gus Malzahn responded by bringing in Ted Roof after he parted ways with Oklahoma.
Roof and the Knights attacked the transfer portal to address needs on the defensive side of the ball, starting at linebacker. Ethan Barr comes over from Vanderbilt after starting for the Commodores over the last two seasons, while Jesiah Pierre (Texas Tech) and Deshawn Pace (Cincinnati) come to town after earning All-Big 12 honorable mentions.
Ricky Barber and Lee Hunter return to anchor the defensive line, and although they lost Josh Celiscar and Tre’Mon Morris-Brash on the edges, the addition of Miami (FL) standout Nyjalik Kelly more than helps stabilize those losses.
In the secondary, the Knights added Bryon Threats (Cincinnati) and Ladarius Tennison (Ole Miss), plus a few highly recruited youngsters who look ready to contribute immediately. Once this unit gels, it should be improved against the run from a season ago and should be comparable against the pass.
UCF SPECIAL TEAMS: Boom-er Bust?
UCF was disappointing on special teams last year but should be improved in 2024. It has a returning starter in kicker Mitch McCarthy, and while Colton Boomer is back to assume the punting duties, he will have to hold off one of the highest-rated punters in last year’s class with Grant Reddick.
PREDICTION: UCF Goes 9-3, 7-2 in Big 12 Play
Playing solid defense and having excellent play at quarterback is a winning recipe in the Big 12, and it appears the Knights could have the pieces to produce both of those results. The offense will be potent, and even if the defense is minimally improved against the run, it should be enough to get them over the hump after losing so many close games a year ago. I’m not ready to pull the trigger on putting them in the Big 12 title game, but I do feel confident in saying they’ll be in contention. 9-3 feels right for this team with a challenging schedule.
Related: Predicting Every Game of the 2024 Big 12 Football Season
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
