Making predictions before we get any sort of look at teams in fall camp is risky business, but it’s something that we’ve seen become more and more popular.
It’s easy to just nonchalantly say, “Oh, they’re winning 10 games this season,” and just move on to the next team during this time of the college football calendar, but I wanted to do something different.
What if I not only predicted the record for every team in the Big 12, but I did it by predicting the winner in every single game on the conference football schedule in 2024?
Yes, that’s 192 games. Yes, I predicted every single one of them. Here’s how I see the schedule playing out for each team ahead of the first Saturday in July.
2024 Big 12 Football Schedule
Team Breakdowns
Arizona Wildcats
Predicted Record: 9-3 (7-2)
Key Games: at Kansas State, at Utah, at UCF, at TCU
Despite the loss of Jedd Fisch, expect the Wildcats to compete for a Big 12 crown in its first season under Brent Brennan. However, a trio of road tests could be the thing that keeps Arizona from finishing in position play for the title in the end.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Predicted Record: 4-8 (1-8)
Key Games: Mississippi State, at Texas Tech, at Cincinnati, UCF, BYU
It feels like Kenny Dillingham’s group is going to have a tough time dealing with one of the toughest schedules in the Big 12. Outside of the first two games of the season against Wyoming, I expect the Sun Devils to be underdogs in every contest this season. If they can win the five games listed, they’ll get to bowl eligibility, but it’s a long shot.
Baylor Bears
Predicted Record: 4-8 (2-7)
Key Games: BYU, at Texas Tech, TCU, at Houston
This is a big year for Dave Aranda’s group, but I just don’t see the additions necessary to make a bowl game. Dequan Finn could prove me wrong, but I’d rather be surprised than put my faith in a team that has struggled with consistency over the last two seasons.
BYU Cougars
Predicted Record: 6-6 (4-5)
Key Games: at SMU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at Utah, Kansas
Kalani Sitake is feeling a little pressure to perform this season, and with an improved defense, I like the Cougs’ chances to get back to bowl contention. It won’t be easy with a tough conference schedule, but a three-game streak to end the year gets them to .500.
UCF Knights
Predicted Record: 8-4 (6-3)
Key Games: at TCU, at Florida, at Iowa State, Arizona, Utah
KJ Jefferson and Gus Malzahn are a match made in heaven, and if the Knights’ defense can take a significant step forward under Ted Roof, UCF could be a surprise contender. I’m not sure they take big enough steps to get to Arlington, but an 8-4 season would be one heck of an improvement from last season.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Predicted Record: 3-9 (1-8)
Key Games: Pittsburgh, Miami (OH), at Texas Tech, Arizona State, at Houston
Scott Satterfield’s first year in Cincinnati was a disaster, and I’m not sure it gets much better in Year 2. The offense is more consistent with Brendan Sorsby at quarterback, but the defense takes a step back with several key players gone from that side of the ball. I don’t know if it costs him his job quite yet, but Satterfield will be feeling the pressure with another 3-9 campaign.
Colorado Buffaloes
Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6)
Key Games: at Nebraska, at UCF, at Arizona, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Oklahoma State
I expect Colorado to be better in 2024, but how much better is the question? The lines of scrimmage were abysmal last season, and even a slight improvement could’ve been enough to get them over the hump in a few games a year ago. It’s going to be a tough hill to climb in the Big 12, though, with UCF, Kansas State, Arizona, Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State all on the schedule.
Houston Cougars
Predicted Record: 2-10 (1-8)
Key Games: Rice, at Cincinnati, Baylor, at BYU
I believe Willie Fritz will turn Houston into a winning program before too long, but I don’t think he’s got the pieces to do it in a single season. The middle portion of the schedule is brutal, but if they can dominate the beginning and end of their slate, the Coogs could surprise.
Iowa State Cyclones
Predicted Record: 9-3 (7-2)
Key Games: at Iowa, UCF, at Kansas, at Utah, Kansas State
Rocco Becht and the Cyclones aren’t getting the kind of credit they deserve heading into the year, but that plays right into Matt Campbell’s hand. Iowa State will be a Big 12 contender right up until the end, and if they can get a couple of lucky bounces in their big games, it could send them to Arlington.
Kansas Jayhawks
Predicted Record: 8-4 (4-5)
Key Games: at West Virginia, TCU, at Kansas State, Iowa State, at BYU
Lance Leipold has folks in Lawrence feeling like they might have a chance at a Big 12 title in 2024, but that all rides on Jalon Daniels’ health. Kansas has all kinds of playmakers around him, but I haven’t seen Daniels stay on the field for a full season. If he does, they’ll be right in the thick of things, but as for now, I’m not holding my breath.
Kansas State Wildcats
Predicted Record: 10-2 (8-1)
Key Games: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas, at Iowa State
Chris Klieman and the Wildcats come into this season as one of the two favorites to win the Big 12. If Avery Johnson can prove that he can push the ball downfield, there’s a chance that Kansas State could run the table. Once the Cats get through their first bye week, we could see them put together quite a run to finish the year.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Predicted Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Key Games: Utah, at Kansas State, at BYU, at TCU, Texas Tech, at Colorado
Mike Gundy is coming into another season where the expectations seem to be lagging, and this might be the weirdest case that we’ve seen in his 20 years in Stillwater. The Pokes, who 10-win team a season ago, are bringing back pretty much everyone and look very much like a Big 12 contender.
TCU Horned Frogs
Predicted Record: 6-6 (4-5)
Key Games: at SMU, at Kansas, at Utah, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, Arizona
Year 1 ended in the National Championship Game. Year 2 ended with a regular season loss in Norman. What does Year 3 hold for Sonny Dykes? Almost certainly somewhere in between as Josh Hoover and the Frogs’ offense should be good enough to power TCU to a bowl berth.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Predicted Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Key Games: at Arizona, at TCU, at Iowa State, Colorado, at Oklahoma State
Texas Tech fans probably aren’t going to like this, but I see them starting out the year 5-0 with an easy beginning to the schedule. Unfortunately, I see the end of the slate getting the better of them with six projected losses in their last seven games.
Utah Utes
Predicted Record: 12-0 (9-0)
Key Games: at Oklahoma State, Arizona, BYU, Iowa State, at UCF
Kyle Whittingham and the Utes look like they could be the nation’s favorite dark horse heading into the year, and the schedule really sets up nicely for them. After a tough road game in Stillwater to open up Big 12 play, the Utes will host Arizona and then get a bye week. If they get through that portion of the schedule without a loss, they could run the table. Beware of that trip to UCF to end the season, though…
West Virginia Mountaineers
Predicted Record: 7-5 (5-4)
Key Games: at Pitt, Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, at Arizona, UCF
Neal Brown and the Mountaineers have a ton of good pieces returning from last year’s nine-win squad, but a tough schedule awaits them. There’s a chance that a 7-5 team with this year’s group could be better than what we saw from them a year ago.
Final Predictions
