Arizona State Sun Devils

Each Big 12 Football Team’s Worst-Case Record for 2024

Syndication: The Ames Tribune

Every Big 12 Conference football team is hoping for the best as the season approaches. But what if they don’t?

What if things go completely off the rails? What if your top player gets hurt? What if things just aren’t clicking the way you hoped?

On the heels of our story on each team’s best-case scenario record for this season, here is each Big 12 team’s preview for a worst-case scenario record for the 2024 college football season.

 

ARIZONA: 7-5

What happens: Maybe the vibes just aren’t that good under first-year coach Brent Brennan? Maybe the chemistry between quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan isn’t the same as a year ago? Maybe that Desert Swarm defense loses its way? It could be a combination of things that get to the Wildcats. But, even in the worst case, Arizona still makes a bowl game.

ARIZONA STATE: 2-10

What happens: Arizona State goes on the road and loses to Texas State? It’s a possibility. Quarterback Sam Leavitt can’t give the Sun Devils consistent play? I mean he has to be better than what ASU had a year ago, right? Arizona State’s defense only had three returning starters. All the new blood doesn’t mesh together. That, along with playing nearly every legit Big 12 contender puts the Sun Devils in worse shape than a year ago.

BAYLOR: 4-8

What happens: That’s only a one-win improvement over last year. So what goes wrong? Quarterback Dequan Finn isn’t the game-changer coach Dave Aranda thinks he is. Running back Richard Reese is ineffective or gets hurt. The defense doesn’t improve under Aranda’s direct tutelage as defensive coordinator. And the Bears have a new coach by January.

BYU: 3-9

What happens: The BYU Cougars can’t get the quarterback situation settled by the season opener and go 1-2 in non-conference. From there, three of their first four Big 12 games are against legitimate contenders — and that’s before the Holy War against Utah in November. Maybe BYU rescues Kalani Sitake with wins over Arizona State and Houston to end the season. Maybe it doesn’t.

 

CINCINNATI: 4-8

What happens: New quarterback Brendan Sorsby doesn’t elevate the offense the way coach Scott Satterfield is hoping for. Cincinnati loses to Miami (OH) again, this time on the road. The additions of 30-plus transfers doesn’t lead to the hoped-for production on either side of the ball. The Bearcats transfers at UCF embarrass Cincinnati when the meet in October. Satterfield’s seat gets red hot.

COLORADO: 3-9

What happens: Colorado finds out that Big 12 defense are better than it thinks. While quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way player Travis Hunter have huge years, the offensive and defensive lines are only marginally better. Unlike the 3-0 start in non-conference the Buffs go 1-2. Colorado lets Baylor or Cincinnati steal one in Boulder. Coach Prime gets a lot more questions he doesn’t like.

HOUSTON: 3-9

What happens: The run game coach Willie Fritz likes to lean on is ineffective with just one returning starter on the offensive line. Like Cincinnati, the 30-plus transfers that came in don’t mesh. The Cougars take too much time to adjust to their new 3-4 defensive scheme and are unable to stop the run or pass any better than a season ago. Houston falls to both UNLV and Rice early in the season.

IOWA STATE: 6-6

What happens: Quarterback Rocco Becht takes a step back instead of a step forward in 2024. Running back Abu Sama II isn’t ready to be the bell cow back for a full season. ISU continues its struggles with getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Injuries take their toll. The Cyclones have the depth to get to another bowl game, but in Ames it will feel like an opportunity missed.

 

KANSAS: 5-7

What happens: Quarterback Jalon Daniels can’t stay healthy. Without Jason Bean as a safety net, defenses can focus on running back Devin Neal and make Kansas one-dimensional offensively. Without a consistent offense, the Jayhawks’ defense spends too much time on the field and is overwhelmed as the season progresses. What was a season full of promise becomes one of “what-if?”

KANSAS STATE: 8-4

What happens: Quarterback Avery Johnson doesn’t quite make the step forward most think he will. That makes Kansas State more reliant on the run game, which is effective but limits the team’s ceiling in games where it must come back. The defensive isn’t a Top 5 unit in the Big 12 in points per possession as per the usual. Still, there’s enough talent to get the Wildcats back to a bowl game. 

OKLAHOMA STATE: 8-4

What happens: A forgiving schedule will help. But running back Ollie Gordon II isn’t able to duplicate last year’s Doak Walker Award-winning season. Quarterback Alan Bowman gets hurt again. The defense doesn’t improve in scoring defense or pass defense efficiency, areas it struggled last year. The Cowboys’ sheer amount of depth keeps it in the Big 12 race.

TCU: 4-8

What happens: The switch to defensive coordinator Andy Avalos’ new formation doesn’t create the turnovers the Horned Frogs are hoping for. Quarterback Josh Hoover isn’t ready for prime time and the job becomes a revolving door. TCU starts the season 1-3, with only a win against FCS school Long Island to show for it. It becomes a long year and coach Sonny Dykes has to start looking over his shoulder.

 

TEXAS TECH: 5-7

What happens: The Red Raiders lose the road trip to Washington State and it sets a similar tone as last year’s loss at Wyoming. Texas Tech finally finds that quarterback Behren Morton isn’t the right guy under center. Tech’s roster turnover on defense doesn’t yield a unit that is any better than a year ago. The vibes go out the window after coach Joey McGuire’s third year and the folks in Lubbock start getting restless.

UCF: 5-7

What happens: All the transfer talent the Knights brought in on defense, along with new coordinator Ted Roof, doesn’t mesh together. The Knights stumble to start Big 12 play at TCU. Florida overwhelms UCF in The Swamp. K.J. Jefferson isn’t the “perfect fit” for Gus Malzahn’s offense the way many believe. And, then folks in Orlando start to think Malzahn may not be the “perfect fit” for them.

UTAH: 8-4

What happens: Tight end Brent Kuithe, running back Micah Bernard and quarterback Cameron Rising, both of whom missed the 2023 season, can’t recapture the magic of 2022. The Utah Utes can stop the football but can’t rush the passer and start giving up big plays downfield. Utah loses its first two Big 12 games to Oklahoma State and Arizona and have to win the rest of the way to get to Arlington.

WEST VIRGINIA: 5-7

What happens: The Mountaineers start 1-2, losing to Penn State and Pitt. Quarterback Garrett Greene doesn’t go from “under-the-radar” to “star” as some hope. The running game short-circuits. The defense takes a step back after two years of improvement. And WVU is overwhelmed by an early Big 12 schedule against five league contenders. It’s enough to make you want to stop trusting the club.

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