As kickoff draws closer, more and more preseason lists are coming out. This week I wrapped up my Summer Series talking about the most underrated, overrated, best and worst teams in the Big 12 heading into 20224.
On Wednesday, Kelley Ford of kfordratings.com released a graph showing a projection of one possession regular season games for each school.
K-Ford One-Score Big 12 Projections
10: Colorado
9: West Virginia
8: TCU
7: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Texas Tech, UCF, Iowa State, Cincinnati, and Baylor
6: Kansas
5: Houston and Arizona State
4: Utah and BYU
This should come as no surprise. Since 2014, the Big 12 Conference has played the highest-percentage of one-score games out of any college football conference. The Big 12 has played 42.32% of its games to one-score, while the FBS average for a conference is 38.56%, and the SEC is down at 37.01%.
Now, as you can see above, Colorado is projected to play in ten one-possession games. That is a crazy-high number and is the highest of any team in all of college football. It’s also a bit surprising considering the Buffaloes were picked to finish outside the Top Ten in the Big 12 preseason poll.
Next up are West Viginia and TCU. The Mountaineers are a solid football team with a ton of returning players. Their schedule is absolutely brutal, and I understand why they were projected to have eight one-possession games. As for TCU, that one remains a bit of a mystery to me.
With seven one-score games, we see a whole mess of teams. Half the conference is projected to have seven one-score games, which considering how close and competitive the Big 12 Conference is projected to be, this should not come as any surprise to Big 12 fans who have been actively following the preseason projections from across the conference.
Kansas at six wasn’t too much of a shocker considering their schedule but it will all come down to the health of Jalon Daniels. As for Houston and Arizona State, they will be lucky to play in five one score games in conference play.
Finally, we get to BYU and Utah. Both are low on the list for two completely different reasons. Utah has a light schedule and are favorites to win the Big 12 Conference. While they will be tested at times, they should handle their schedule quite well. As for their in-state rival, I see the opposite. They will be lucky to make a bowl game this year and I don’t see them keeping up with most teams on their schedule.
Biggest Takeaway
Bet the Big 12 Conference this season at your own peril. You’ll be on the edge of your seat sweating out spreads on either the favorite’s end or the underdog’s side. Regardless, the amount of backdoor covers we are going to see in this league could be unlike anything we have seen in modern college football history. Bet responsibly.
And if you’re not following us at Heartland College Sports every step of the way, and on every social media platform, you’re going to miss one of the most exciting years of college football, possibly ever. Saddle up!
