Arizona vs. Kansas State: Prediction and Preview
Week 3 of the college football season is here. No. 20 Arizona plays No. 14 Kansas State, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Friday, Sept. 13; 7:00 p.m. (CT); Bill Snyder Family Stadium; Manhattan, KS
TV: FOX
Records: No. 20 Arizona (2-0); No. 14 Kansas State (2-0)
Last Week: Arizona 22, NAU 10; Kansas State 34, Tulane 27
Series History: Arizona leads, 5-1-1
Last Meeting: Arizona 31, Kansas State 0 (1978)
Fun Fact: This week’s matchup will be Arizona’s first-ever trip to Manhattan, Kansas. Despite meeting seven times between 1941 and 1978, Kansas State and Arizona have never played at a venue outside of Tucson, AZ.
Team A vs Team B Betting Lines and Odds
Opening Line: Kansas State (-7)
Over/Under: 56.5
Key Players
Arizona Wildcats
WR Tetairoa McMillan
Whether by design or an excellent game plan from NAU, Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan had just two catches for 11 yards in last week’s 22-10 win. Despite that, he ranks second among FBS wide receivers with 315 receiving yards and leads the nation with four receiving touchdowns after his monster performance in Week 1. In a hostile road environment, McMillan will likely be the primary target for Noah Fifita and the visiting Wildcats.
LB Jacob Manu
There are several proven playmakers on the Arizona defense, but in last week’s win over Northern Arizona, linebacker Jacob Manu stood out. In the 22-10 win, Manu recorded 14 tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, two pass breakups, and one fumble recovery. Manu and the Wildcats defense held NAU to 198 total yards, and just 91 yards after halftime. Doing that against Kansas State isn’t likely, but Manu will definitely be one of the busiest defenders on the field against K-State’s rushing attack.
Kansas State Wildcats
QB Avery Johnson
Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has certainly looked the part through two games, and as a result, has the Wildcats’ offense averaging 37.5 ppg. He’s completed 65.9% of his attempts for 334 yards and four touchdowns (1 INT) and is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers. While we have yet to see Johnson bust open a game with his legs like we saw last season, there’s no doubt that he’s one of the most gifted running quarterbacks in the country. He’s recorded 11 carries for 77 yards (7.0 ypc) through two games and will certainly play a factor in this contest and going forward.
CB Jacob Parrish
Arizona’s offense is built to test secondaries, which means cornerback Jacob Parrish – and the rest of the Kansas State defensive backfield – will need to be on their A-game this week. On the season, Parrish has eight tackles and one tackle for loss, but against the visiting Wildcats, his primary concern will be Tetairoa McMillan. There aren’t many receivers in college football who have a skillset like TMac, and as he’s already shown, he can be a one-man game-wrecker. If Kansas State is going to avoid the upset at home, Parrish and Co. will have to limit McMillan and the U of A passing attack.
KEY STORYLINES
Arizona Wildcats
Can Arizona slow down K-State’s rushing attack? We’ve covered the challenges that K-State’s defense is going to have with keeping Arizona’s passing offense under wraps, but what about the other side of the ball? Through two games, Kansas State ranks 20th nationally with 249.0 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 82nd in rush defense, allowing 141.5 yards per game. The problem is, that came against New Mexico and Northern Arizona. No offense to the Lobos or the Lumberjacks, but Kansas State’s rushing attack will be a big step up in difficulty.
Kansas State Wildcats
Can Avery Johnson take over the game? While it wasn’t to the level that we’ve seen with names like Carson Beck and Dillon Gabriel, Johnson had quite a lot of preseason hype and was considered a dark horse Heisman contender entering the year. In a tough road game last week, Johnson made enough plays to keep his team in striking distance and didn’t put the ball in harm’s way. However, when K-State starts to expand its playbook, I have a feeling Johnson’s dual-threat ability is going to make this offense a real problem. If that’s against Arizona, it could be the difference in the game.
PREDICTION: Kansas State 37, Arizona 31
Even though it technically involves two Big 12 teams, this is the most intriguing nonconference game of the Big 12’s 2024 season. Arizona was undervalued coming into the year and feels like a team that is going to make a run at some point this season. How long it takes for them to get up to speed will determine how far that run will carry this team. If it begins in Manhattan, there’s a good chance the Wildcats are on a path to Arlington and perhaps a lot further.
Meanwhile, Kansas State entered the 2024 season with high expectations and this game kicks off a tricky three-game stretch. Taking down Arizona at home, even if it’s a nonconference game, would be a massive way to jumpstart K-State’s run to a Big 12 title game appearance.
In one of the most entertaining games of the entire weekend, I expect K-State and Arizona to trade punches throughout the game. However, it’s Kansas State’s rushing attack that wins the day, as the three-headed monster of D.J. Giddens, Dylan Edwards, and Johnson are able to control the clock late in the game and play keep away from Fifita and the Arizona offense for long enough to secure a one-score victory.
