Each Big 12 team is shooting for a chance to reach the league’s football championship game on the first Saturday of December in Arlington, Texas.
Every team is shooting to win every game. But, some teams have better chances than others to climb the ladder and reach that title game. The carrot is the berth in the College Football Playoff that is basically guaranteed to the winner.
So, what is each team’s best-case scenario record for this season? I was assigned to dig in. The best-case scenario is for the regular season. And, it’s meant to be realistic.
ARIZONA: 10-2
The Wildcats can max out at ten wins if they beat Kansas State in the non-conference battle in Manhattan and do not allow teams like Colorado, Houston, and Arizona State to steal one at Arizona Stadium. The losses come on the road in Utah, along with a stumble in their cross-country trip to UCF.
ARIZONA STATE: 6-6
It’s a tough road for the Sun Devils in their first Big 12 season. To max out, ASU has to beat Wyoming, Texas State (on the road), Cincinnati (also on the road), and BYU. Then, it’s about stealing two games against teams that, on paper, Arizona State will likely be underdogs, too. Home games against Mississippi State, Kansas, and UCF may be the Sun Devils’ best shots.
BAYLOR: 7-5
The Bears have to break the bank early and go 2-1 in non-conference (wins over Tarleton and Air Force are must-wins). If Baylor can beat Colorado on the road and BYU at home to end September, then reaching seven wins is attainable with victories over TCU, Houston and an upset somewhere. That final game at home against Kansas looks enticing if both teams are out of the Big 12 race.
BYU: 7-5
The Cougars drew a tough slate, even in non-conference. Ask Texas Tech how tough it is to play in Wyoming. If BYU can draw a 2-1 record in non-conference, beat Baylor, and steal one against Kansas State, Arizona, and Oklahoma State, then the Cougars can reach seven wins.
CINCINNATI: 7-5
To reach the best case, the Bearcats have to win these five games: Towson, Miami (OH), Houston, UCF, and TCU. If they win those five, Cincinnati likely has a team good enough to take a couple of games it is not supposed to win.
COLORADO: 7-5
Coach Prime probably won’t like that expectation. But that would be a three-game jump from a year ago. It all hinges on having another good non-conference run (2-1 is the absolute worst the Buffs can do) and beating Baylor and Cincinnati. Do that, and the Buffs may be good enough to find three more wins somewhere on that schedule.
HOUSTON: 6-6
The Cougars have a new coach in Willie Fritz, and he knows how to maximize talent when he doesn’t have as much as he’d like. Houston has a chance to start 3-1 if it can beat UNLV, Rice, and Cincinnati. It gets rough after that, but the Cougars have the talent to get to bowl eligibility in that scenario.
IOWA STATE: 9-3
If ISU wins its three non-conference games, the first part of the Cyclones’ Big 12 schedule looks forgiving enough to put them in position to contend for the Big 12 Championship Game come November. It’s that stretch in November — Kansas, Utah, and Kansas State in three of ISU’s final four games — that could cap their best-case scenario.
KANSAS: 9-3
The non-conference slate is low-key tough for a team that is a preseason Top 25. But if the Jayhawks win all three, they’re going to be in the Big 12 race until the end. The best-case scenario hinges on the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels. If he plays the full season, Kansas will hit that best-case — and might even exceed it.
KANSAS STATE: 11-1
The Wildcats have as a forgiving schedule as you’ll find in the Big 12. Kansas State could be a favorite in every game it plays this season. The conference is too balanced for any team to go undefeated. In this scenario, the games against Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Iowa State are the ones to watch.
OKLAHOMA STATE: 11-1
The Cowboys have one of the most experienced teams in the conference and a schedule that gives them a legitimate path to the Big 12 title game. In a realistic best-case, the Cowboys lose either the Utah or Kansas State games but win the rest.
TCU: 8-4
If Josh Hoover is the quarterback the Horned Frogs think he is and the defense takes to defensive coordinator Andy Avalos’ new scheme, TCU can not only get back to a bowl game but exact a couple of upsets along the way. If TCU starts 4-0, watch out.
TEXAS TECH: 9-3
What if quarterback Behren Morton is “that guy?” What if the defense is as deep and talented as coach Joey McGuire thinks it is? Then the Red Raiders are contenders in the Big 12 and could upend a perceived contender like Oklahoma State.
UCF: 8-4
The Knights got an infusion of talent from the transfer portal and have a forgiving early non-conference back-to-back with New Hampshire and Sam Houston. Home games give UCF chances to upset teams like Arizona and Utah, though it’s unlikely. But, a two-game improvement from last year is a best-case scenario.
UTAH: 11-1
The Utes’ toughest games are their back-to-back Big 12 openers against Oklahoma State and Arizona. I can’t see Utah winning both games. But every other game on the schedule is winnable for a team that most see as one of the top two or three favorites in the conference.
WEST VIRGINIA: 8-4
Give WVU credit. Few in the Big 12 are playing two power conference teams in non-conference, and if the Mountaineers split, that’s a good start. But their Big 12 schedule is rough and if WVU can start 3-2 or better, that puts them in a position to reach eight.
