Let’s face it – Week 1 of the Big 12 football schedule was a bit of a snoozer. West Virginia and Penn State were supposed to provide some real star power in the opening weekend of action, but the Nittany Lions ended up rolling the Mountaineers, 34-12.
TCU-Stanford ended up being an entertaining matchup in Palo Alto — the Horned Frogs closed out the game in the fourth quarter — but aside from those two games, the rest of the slate was chock-full of FCS opponents.
Sure, North Dakota State and Abilene Christian made things interesting, while UNLV embarrassed Houston in Willie Fritz’s debut, but for the most part, the Big 12’s first weekend of games was forgettable.
That, however, does not appear to be the case for the league in Week 2, as 10 of the league’s 15 games feature Power Four opponents, and another matchup (K-State vs. Tulane) features a Big 12 contender against what many consider the best G5 program in the country.
This weekend promises to be much more entertaining from a fan perspective, and that likely means there will be a lot more money being thrown around on Saturday.
Action Network’s Evan Abrams has provided some very intriguing trends to be familiar with if you intend to get in on the action this week, with some key Big 12 games being highlighted. Let’s take a look.
Iowa State at Iowa (-3) | O/U: 35.5
Iowa and Iowa State will clash in the annual Cy-Hawk game on Saturday, with kickoff scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT on CBS/Paramount+. What trend should you be checking out in this one? How about the over (Yes, you read that correctly)?
“Week 1 of college football featured an Iowa over,” Abrams writes. “Entering 2024, Iowa unders were 21-6 over the last three years, the best mark in college football. If Iowa-Iowa State goes over the total in Week 2, it would be the first time in 20 years Iowa’s first two games both go over the total. Since the calendar year changed to 2022, Iowa has only gone over the total in consecutive games once — against Ohio State and Northwestern back in October of 2022.
“The total this week for the Cy-Hawk game is 35.5 — the second-lowest total in the rivalry game in the last 20 years. In the 18 total Cy-Hawk games since 2005, the under is 15-3, last going over the total in 2017.”
Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5) | O/U: 55.5
The next game on the list is the old-school Big 12 showdown between Colorado and Nebraska, set for 6:30 p.m. CT (NBC/Peacock) on Saturday. Deion Sanders and the Buffs enter this game at just over a touchdown underdog. That, Abrams says, should tell you all you need to know.
“The Buffaloes are 7.5-point underdogs against Nebraska this week,” Abrams says. “Deion Sanders and Colorado have now been married together for 13 total games. In five of those games, they’ve been favorites, and in eight, they’ve been underdogs.
“As a favorite, they’re 4-1 SU, and as underdogs, they’re 1-7 SU, with their lone win coming against TCU as 21-point underdogs in their first game together.”
Kansas (-4.5) at Illinois | O/U: 57.5
Kansas football’s recent surge of success is rewriting history books as Lance Leipold appears to have found the magic recipe to bringing the Jayhawks back to life. However, when he takes his team on the road to Champagne (IL) this weekend, he’ll be attempting to buck a trend that’s held firm for over three decades: Kansas can’t win big games on the road. They’ll get their chance at 6:00 p.m. CT (FS1) on Saturday night.
“For just the 11th time since 2005 and 14th time since 2000, Kansas is listed as a favorite on the road,” Abrams says. “Kansas was listed as a road favorite three times last season, but before that, the Jayhawks hadn’t been a road favorite in any game since 2009. If you’re looking for the last time Kansas was a road favorite vs. a Power Five team this early in the season, you have to go back to September of 1992, when Big Eight member Kansas was favored on the road against PAC-12 opponent Oregon State.
“Since then, the Jayhawks have been a road favorite against UTEP, SMU, TCU, North Texas and Houston this early — but none were in major conferences then. Historically, the road hasn’t been a fun place for Kansas, going 38-57-2 ATS (40%) since 2005, the second-worst ATS mark of any program ahead of just Colorado.”
Baylor at Utah (-14.5) | O/U: 55.5
Baylor’s offense under Dequan Finn was impressive in Week 1, albeit against Tarleton State. This week, however, there will be no question about the Bears’ level of competition being up to par. BU will hit the road to take on Utah in a pre-existing nonconference matchup between two Big 12 opponents.
The bad news for the Bears? Under Kyle Whittingham, the Utes don’t fold as big-time favorites.
“Nobody figures out a way to cover the spread like Kyle Whittingham,” Abrams writes. “Whittingham has finished his last eight seasons above .500 ATS, according to Bet Labs, and in terms of laying big numbers, it hasn’t mattered too much.
“As a double-digit favorite, Whittingham is 46-27-1 ATS, making him the second-most profitable coach as a double-digit favorite since 2005, behind only James Franklin. How about this? Since the 2017 season, Whittingham is 33-0 SU and 21-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite.”
Other Notable Big 12 Trends
- Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-10): Arkansas is coming off a game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock — a neutral site game. Teams playing a game after a neutral site game, where they’re listed as the underdog, are just 11-46 SU (19%) since 2019, including 26-31 ATS.
- Texas Tech at Washington State (-2): Texas Tech is coming off a very close call in its opener against Abilene Christian (52-51, F/OT), closing as 20+ point favorites in the game but only winning by 10 points or less outright. In the last 20 years, teams who close as 20+ point favorites in their opener and win by 10 points or less are 59-43-2 ATS in their second game of the season — having a good opportunity to play better the following week.
