Houston vs. UNLV: Prediction, Preview, Updated Odds
Week 1 of the college football season is here. Houston plays UNLV, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Saturday, August 31; 6:00 p.m. (CT); TDECU Stadium; Houston, TX
TV: FS1
Houston vs. UNLV opening betting odds: Houston (-3); O/U (56.5)
Houston vs. UNLV updated betting odds (Sat 8/31 at 4PM CT): Houston (-3); O/U (56)
Records: Houston (0-0); UNLV (0-0)
Last Week: N/A
Series History: Houston leads, 3-0
Last Meeting: Houston 47, UNLV 14 (2014)
Fun Fact: This will be the second consecutive game that UNLV plays a Big 12 opponent. The Rebels finished their 2023 season in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl against Kansas, where the Jayhawks came out with a 49-36 victory.
KEY PLAYERS
UNLV Rebels
OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Rebels’ Starting QB: The expectations were supposed to be high for UNLV with quarterback Jayden Maiava being set to return for UNLV after the 2023 season. However, Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans had other plans, and Maiava is in Los Angeles now. There are three players vying for the starting quarterback spot: sixth-year transfer Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell), senior transfer Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross), and returning senior Cameron Friel.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER
LB Jackson Woodard: In 2023, the Rebels’ defense centered around senior linebacker Jackson Woodard, who ended the season as a First-Team All-Mountain West selection. Now, the Preseason MWC Defensive Player of the Year, Woodard returns after ranking third in the Mountain West with 117 total tackles last season, including 55 solo stops, 9.0 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks.
Houston Cougars
OFFENSIVE PLAYER
QB Donovan Smith: While he’s not getting much national recognition from those in the college football world, Donovan Smith is a popular name among NFL scouts. His 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame is intriguing, and his athleticism at that size makes him a rushing threat in the red zone. Last season, Smith accounted for 2,801 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air, adding 428 yards and six scores on the ground. The Coogs’ offense will revolve around Smith, and how Willie Fritz uses him will be an interesting storyline to follow.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER
LB Jamal Morris: In his Junior season, Morris played in 11 of Houston’s 12 games, making 10 starts for the Cougars and ended the season ranked third on the team with 64 total tackles, 2.0 TFLs, and 0.5 sacks. He tied for the team lead with five PBUs and ranked second on the team with 38 solo tackles, making him one of the better defenders in space that UH will have at its disposal in 2024. With a lot of new faces in the mix, Morris will be a stable leader for the Cougars’ defense in Fritz’s first season.
KEY STORYLINES
UNLV Rebels
Who starts at quarterback for the Rebels? There are three legitimate options to replace Maiava, and each of them brings something different to the table. Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka holds the NCAA record for rushing yards for a quarterback in a game after piling up 330 on the ground against UL-Lafayette last year. Hajj-Malik Williams brings a wealth of experience after leaving Campbell as the program’s all-time leader in passing yards (8,236) and touchdowns (58). Cameron Friel is familiar with UNLV’s incredibly fast-paced offensive scheme after sitting behind Maiava last season. Whoever gets the start will have a friendly system to work with, but there’s no telling who Barry Odom will roll with on Saturday.
Home Team
Can Houston get the Willie Fritz era started off on the right foot? The first year in the Big 12 was not kind to UH, and the 4-8 record was enough for them to move on from Dana Holgorsen. Fritz was considered the top non-Power Five coach at Tulane, and now, the expectation is that he’ll get Houston back to its winning ways. While Year 1 is expected to be tough, Fritz has a knack for keeping his team in games and finding a way to win. If they can do that against a UNLV team that is coming off a nine-win season a year ago, it could give the Coogs some confidence heading into a much tougher contest against Oklahoma in Week 2.
Houston vs. UNLV Betting Lines
Line: Houston (-2.5) | O/U: 54.5 | Moneyline: UNLV +110 | ESPN Matchup Predictor: Houston (63.9%)
Houston’s 2024 season isn’t going to be indicative of where the team is headed under Willie Fritz, and I honestly believe that is nowhere but up. Getting Fritz to leave Tulane for Houston was one of the biggest wins for any program this offseason, and the fruits of that will start to show at some point. However, drawing a dangerous offensive team like UNLV in Game 1 is a tough spot for the Cougars, even if it is at home. The Rebels’ wide receiver corps is lethal, with Ricky White and Jacob De Jesus making up one of the best tandems in the Group of Five. If they find an answer at quarterback (which I believe they will), UNLV will contend for a Mountain West title in 2024. So, while this might look like a bad loss on paper, it ends up being much easier to stomach once folks realize how good the Rebels are this season.
Picks – SU: UNLV | ATS: UNLV (+2.5) | O/U: Over 54.5
PREDICTION: UNLV 31, Houston 27
