The 2024 college football season is set to move into Week 2 on Saturday. And after the conference found itself mostly playing FCS schools in Week 1, this week is a loaded slate with several Power 4 opponents on the schedule for the conference. Nine of the Big 12’s 16 games are against Power 4 (plus Pac-12) opponents.
The week starts with BYU at SMU (yes, they’re in the ACC on Friday) and wraps with Arizona State vs. Mississippi State on Saturday. And in between, there are seven other games of note including, Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas, Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh, Iowa State at Iowa, Kansas at Illinois, Colorado at Nebraska, Houston at Oklahoma and Texas Tech at Washington.
Oh, and while it’s not a Power 4/5 game, Kansas State at Tulane is a very respectable match up that’s worth watching, since the Wildcats are perceived to be a Big 12 contender.
All of these games will play a role as to how the Big 12 is perceived as we get later in the season and the College Football Playoff committee starts ranking teams in November.
College Football Playoff Implications
For the Big 12, the reality has always been that the league will get one or two teams into the College Football Playoff. It would take a miracle of circumstances for the Big 12 to get more than three teams into the Playoff. And even two might be a longshot, depending on how things play out around the rest of college football.
The games that will matter the most are the games the Big 12 is expected to win. Kansas State beating Tulane, Oklahoma State handling Arkansas and Kansas beating Illinois are crucial for the league. They can’t afford to drop any of these games.
These are three teams who are perceived Big 12 contenders going up against competition who is not in their league, at least according to Vegas oddsmakers. Tulane is an AAC team, while Arkansas and Illinois are not projected to be anywhere near the top of the SEC or Big Ten, respectively. That’s why these three games matter the most.
Toss-Up Games
From there are the toss-up games for the Big 12 Conference. Cincinnati is a two-point favorite over Pittsburgh, Iowa State is a 2.5-point underdog at Iowa and Texas Tech is a two-point underdog at Washington State. And lastly, while the spread suggests this game is more than a toss up, I still view Arizona State vs. Mississippi State as a toss up, as no one really knows what to make of the Sun Devils just yet.
Those three games could go either way, and if the Big 12 picks off two of them, that’s more than fine. Clearly, the most impressive would be Iowa State winning over Iowa on the road in Cy-Hawk, but a 2-2 record with an Iowa State loss should keep Big 12 fans satisfied (but not Iowa State fans).
House Money
Then, there are the games where the Big 12 is playing with some house money. There are three of those games. BYU at SMU is a game where the Cougars are double-digit underdogs. Also, Colorado is more than a touchdown underdog against Nebraska, while Houston is a four-touchdown underdog against Oklahoma.
These are three that the Big 12 are expected to lose and really won’t change the perception of the league if they end up coming up short in any of these three games.
What Would a Strong Big 12 Record Be?
When looking at these ten games, the Big 12 would sign up for 6-4 in a heartbeat, but 5-5 will get the job done as well. That would be winning the three must-wins (Kansas, Oklahoma State, K-State) and then either two of the four toss ups, or one toss up and one surprise upset.
But if the Big 12 finds itself going 4-6 or worse this weekend in those ten crucial games, you can kiss the Big 12’s chances of having two teams in the College Football Playoff goodbye. It would take utter chaos to even start that conversation.
But with a strong showing this week, it would go a long way for the Big 12 to look around the college football landscape as most national media fawns over the SEC and Big Ten and at least have a case to make in saying, “Hey! Don’t forget about us!” We’ll know much more come Saturday night.
