Arizona vs. New Mexico: Prediction, Preview, Betting Odds
Week one of the college football season is here. Arizona plays New Mexico and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview and betting odds ahead of the match up.
GAME INFO
Saturday, Aug. 31; 9:30 p.m. (CT); Arizona Stadium; Tucson, Ariz.
TV: ESPN
Line: New Mexico +31.5
Over/Under: 54.5
Records: Arizona (0-0); New Mexico (0-0)
Last Week: Arizona, season opener; New Mexico lost to Montana State, 35-31.
Series History: Arizona leads series, 44-20-3.
Last Meeting: Arizona def. New Mexico, 45-37 (2015).
Fun Fact: The Wildcats and Lobos were conference rivals at one point, as they both played in the Western Athletic Conference. Arizona left the WAC to join the Pac-12. The Wildcats are playing their first season in the Big 12, while New Mexico is now in the Mountain West Conference.
KEY PLAYERS
New Mexico
OFFENSIVE PLAYER
WR Caleb Medford: If the Lobos are going bowling, Medford has to lead the way in the passing game. Last season, he led the team in receiving yards (551) and was second in receptions (30). Among all qualified Mountain West receivers returning in 2024, Medford’s 18.4 yards per catch led the way. So he’s a big play threat that can test defenses. Medford couldn’t get much done in the opener, as he caught one pass for seven yards in a game where the UNM offense struggled.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER
CB Noah Avinger: No coach wants their defensive back to make 14 tackles in a game, but the junior stepped up with that total against Montana State. Nine of his tackles were unassisted. But Avinger also helped the Lobos build an early lead with a fumble recovery that he returned for touchdowns. He played two seasons at San Diego State before he redshirted last season. The Lobos are familiar with the former All-Mountain West performer and hope he can help them create more turnovers.
Arizona
OFFENSIVE PLAYER
QB Noah Fifita: The Wildcats will be a running back by committee to start this season, as their depth chart features four potential starters. But Fifita is locked in after he took over the job at midseason and ultimately led the Wildcats to seven straight victories to end last season. He finished with 2,869 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. There’s a reason you’ll find him on every quarterback award watch list to start this season.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER
LB Jacob Manu: Arizona has a range of players it can lean on defensively, but Manu might make the biggest impact. He was an All-Pac-12 selection last season after he led the conference with 116 tackles. He had double-digit tackles in five games. He was also second on the team in tackles for loss (9.5) and sacks (6.5). Like Fifita, he’s on every defensive watch list to open the season, including the Butkus Award for the nation’s top linebacker.
KEY STORYLINES
New Mexico
On one hand, losing to the No. 4 FCS team in the country — Montana State — isn’t the worst thing in the world. Then again, the Lobos fumbled away a game they should have won, as they converted two Bobcats turnovers into touchdowns and blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in coach Bronco Mendenhall’s debut. The former BYU and Virginia coach is tasked with turning the Lobos around after a 4-8 season. It looks like it’s going to be a hard road, especially after the offense generally sputtered and the defense gave up more than 300 yards rushing to Montana State.
Arizona
The offseason saw one of two head-coaching changes in the conference, as Jedd Fisch — the coach that orchestrated the Wildcats’ 10-3 season — took the job at Washington. Arizona tapped into the Dick Tomey coaching tree for his replacement. Brent Brennan was a graduate assistant for Tomey in the 1990s and later was an assistant coach under Tomey at San Jose State. Brennan hopes to do what one of the most respected coaches in program history — keep Arizona consistent winners. Brennan won the transfer portal battle just by keeping Fifita and his top wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, in town for another year.
PREDICTION: Arizona 55, New Mexico 17
New Mexico’s loss to Montana State, I suspect, was more about the installation of new schemes than it was about a talent gap. This game will be all about the talent gap. If the Lobos can force some early turnovers like last week, they can make it enjoyable. But this feels like a blowout for the Wildcats, who return all kinds of experience at key positions and enter the Big 12 with a chip on their shoulder after narrowly missing out on reaching the Pac-12 title game.
