HCS Roundtable: Will the Big 12 Lose Any Superstars in the Transfer Portal Chaos?
A storm is coming. It’s spring, which means severe thunderstorm outbreaks are common all over the country, but we’re talking about a different kind of storm.
Josh Pate, a notable storm chaser and college football personality, has been warning college football fans for weeks now that something big is on the horizon, and it will arrive on Monday.
I can’t help but envision the scene in Twister when Jo and Bill realize that something is wrong at the drive-in movie showing of The Shining. Moments later, an F4 tornado rips through the area and levels the place. That’s the vibe I am getting from Pate as he describes what the transfer portal has in store for us.
“I am not overstating this: It will be the wildest transfer portal era that you’ve ever seen,” Pate said in a recent episode of the “Late Kick” podcast. “And it’s gonna completely gut some of your teams.”
Will we see any Big 12 teams get “completely gutted?” Will frontrunners in the conference lose their superstars and be left as little more than a husk of what they once were? Let’s see what the HCS staff thinks.
Pete Mundo
Yes. At least one. Who? I don’t know. That’s anyone’s guess.
But remember, the SEC isn’t allowing players who transfer within the SEC to play this season. That means that SEC teams looking to fill spots are going to be looking elsewhere. The Big Ten teams are likely going to be able to protect who they want to, because they have more money and resources, and likely bigger NIL Collectives.
But the Big 12 will be ripe for the picking. The SEC, in particular, can open the wallet and throw stupid money at anyone in the Big 12. The question is will these Big 12 programs step up to the plate over the next couple of weeks?
I think many will but I have my doubts, and I believe at least one superstar will end up leaving, and it will leave us all shocked.
Bryan Clinton
Yes. Josh Pate is a guy with connections. You don’t get to do an *whispers* “offseason” road trip to visit one-on-one with college footballs biggest coaches if that weren’t the case. So, when he says that we’re about to witness utter chaos unlike we’ve ever seen in the transfer portal, I take notice.
As to the question of what permits superstar status, there are probably 15-20 players in the conference that fit the description: Ollie Gordon, Noah Fifita, Avery Johnson, KJ Jefferson, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, and Cam Rising to name a few.
If this cycle is truly going to leave some teams “gutted,” then I’d imagine names of that caliber are going to be jumping all over the place, and the Big 12 won’t be immune to that. So, yes, I do believe at least one or two superstars will be finding a new home. And when they do, boy, is it going to be hard to watch it unfold.
Joe Tillery
No. While I’ve been hearing a lot of buzz regarding a mass exodus in the spring portal window, the root of the question comes down to what we define as a superstar. I do expect some notable names to hit the portal, but I think it’s slightly far-fetched to say that a superstar is going to hit the portal.
My guess is primarily anyone who sees either a drastic change in NIL (which we have definitely seen over the past few seasons) or anyone who feels they haven’t been awarded adequate playtime, given their efforts. My pick for what will happen is that a lot of young guys will hit the portal. Top-ranking freshmen in different classes feel like the most vulnerable in this sense because they haven’t had much time to adjust to life under a new coaching staff.
If I had to pick, I wouldn’t go far enough to say a superstar hits the portal from the Big 12 Conference.
Matthew Postins
Yes. I’ve been following a lot of basketball and as I’ve watched players go into the portal, one thing is clear — they’re all looking for the right opportunity, and that isn’t just playing time. NIL is part of the deal, too. For instance, Wisconsin guard A.J. Storr was reportedly looking for $1 million in NIL money after he decided to transfer from the Badgers. So some of this is connected — players hit the portal looking for a potential payoff, along with playing time.
That, combined with the fact that no one needs a waiver now thanks to recent court rulings, Pate is right — it truly could be the wild west after spring practice is over. I’m not plugged in enough with football to predict who. But, yes, some superstars you would not expect to hit the portal will do so.
Derek Duke
Yes. I am just going to say yes here because I honestly have no idea, but it wouldn’t shock me one bit to see someone go. Unfortunately, I don’t have a crystal ball in my possession, and if I did, I probably would have a lot better success with my sports bets. The off-season in college football now is nonstop. It’s the Wild West 24/7, and that is why I don’t take too much stock into spring football. Because these teams are going to look so much different in the fall than they do right now. I hope we don’t see a major transfer, but at this point, nothing surprises me, and it’s going to continue to be like this until some type of rules or regulations are put in place by the NCAA. But I know I have a better chance of winning the lottery than that happening.
