UCF vs. TCU: Prediction, Preview, Spread and Betting Odds

Week 3 of the college football season is here. UCF plays TCU, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Saturday, Sept. 14; 6:30 p.m. (CT); Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, TX
TV: FOX
Records: UCF (2-0); TCU (2-0)
Last Week: UCF 45, Sam Houston 14; TCU 45, LIU 0
Series History: First-ever matchup
Last Meeting: N/A
Fun Fact: Based on recruiting rankings alone, this will be one of the biggest head-to-head matchups in the Big 12 regarding roster talent. TCU (2nd) and UCF (3rd) were two of the top three recruiting classes in the Big 12 in 2024 and currently rank 1st (TCU) and 2nd (UCF) in the 2025 class rankings for the conference.
UCF vs TCU Betting Lines and Odds
Opening Line: TCU (-2)
Over/Under: 61.5
Key Players
UCF Knights
QB KJ Jefferson
Everyone knows that UCF is going to emphasize running the football, and there might not be a backfield in the country that is more talented than what the Knights possess. The biggest question for the UCF offense heading into Big 12 play, though, is what the passing game is capable of. Quarterback KJ Jefferson has been underwhelming through two weeks (19-29, 333 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), and TCU will be the toughest defense he’s faced to this point — by far. If UCF is going to push for a Big 12 title in 2024, Jefferson will need to make teams respect the Knights’ passing game enough that they can’t load the box to negate their rushing attack.
LB Deshawn Pace
After spending four seasons with Cincinnati and recording 247 tackles as a key member of the Bearcats’ defense, linebacker Deshawn Pace transferred to UCF. Through limited action in two games, Pace co-leads the team with seven tackles. As the opponents get tougher, Pace’s role will only expand, and in Fort Worth this weekend, we will see him on the field for a full four quarters. If UCF is going to be better defensively in 2024, which many expect them to be, it’ll start with Pace and the linebackers.
TCU Horned Frogs
QB Josh Hoover
Sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover has picked up right where he left off in 2023, passing for 620 yards and and four touchdowns through two games. That’s good enough for 14th nationally and third in the Big 12 to this point. With several dangerous targets to distribute the ball to, Hoover could quietly be a candidate to lead the Big 12 in passing this season. Against a UCF defense that’s got a lot of new pieces, Hoover could prove a significant issue for the Knights on the road.
LB Namdi Obiazor
Alongside Johnny Hodges (16 tackles), TCU Namdi Obiazor is part of one of the most underrated linebacker corps in America. Through the first two games of the season, Obiazor ranks third on the team with nine tackles, but leads the team with 1.5 sacks and also had his first career interception last week against Long Island. This week, UCF is sure to give TCU a heavy dose of the run game. That means Obiazor and Hodges will be as busy as ever.
KEY STORYLINES
UCF Knights
Is UCF’s rushing offense for real? After the first two weeks of the 2024 season, UCF leads the country with an astounding 419 rushing yards per game. Now, those numbers were a product of playing New Hampshire and Sam Houston, but they’re impressive nonetheless. With RJ Harvey, Peny Boone, Myles Montgomery, and Johnny Richardson flanking KJ Jefferson in the backfield, there’s a chance this rushing attack could be legit. If they run all over TCU on the road, it would be the best indicator yet.
TCU Horned Frogs
Has TCU’s defense improved enough to make them contenders? In 2023, TCU ranked 81st nationally (160.9 ypg) in rush defense and 104th (421.5 ypg) in total defense. That, in large part, was the reason why TCU went 5-7. This week, UCF brings the No. 1 rushing attack to Fort Worth. Does Andy Avalos’ retooled unit have the horses to get off the field in must-have-it situations? We’re about to find out.
PREDICTION: UCF 33, TCU 30
Everything about this game screams entertaining, and as the first official Big 12 contest of the season, I fully expect it to kick off the Big 12 race in style. Both of these teams feel like squads on the verge of being conference title contenders, and this game will likely see the winner sneak into the Top 25 next week. So, who will that be?
It’s a virtual toss-up in my mind, and that’s what we see according to the analytics. The ESPN matchup prediction gives UCF a 55.2% chance to win the game. Meanwhile, Vegas has TCU set as a two-point favorite. For me, the game comes down to KJ Jefferson proving that he can stretch the field enough to keep the running lanes open. While it won’t be a passing clinic by any means, I do think he’ll do enough to keep TCU from being able to commit everything to the run. Even though it’ll be close, I’ll take UCF to get the win and get to 3-0 before their bye week.
