We are officially headed into Week 4 of the 2024 college football season and have three weeks’ worth of data to go off of when comparing and contrasting teams across the nation.
With the 12-team College Football Playoff beginning this year, resumes, efficiencies, wins, and losses will be compared more than ever, as the at-large bids will almost undoubtedly spark highly-contested arguments between fan bases who feel their team is the more deserving squad.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is a handy tool that uses analytics to rank teams based on their efficiencies and deficiencies.
Each team’s FPI represents their expected point margin against the average team on a neutral field. For example, Texas (ESPN FPI’s Top Team) is expected to be 28.5 points better than the average team, and Alabama (No. 2) is just behind them at 28.2.
FPI also gives a projection on how likely teams are to win their conference, make the Playoff, National Championship, and even what the odds are that they’ll win the title.
There’s a bit of a surprise regarding the team most likely to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff. Instead of the expected suitors like Utah, Kansas State, or Oklahoma State, it’s actually the UCF Knights who have the best odds to represent the league in the Playoff.
According to FPI, UCF has a 30.0% chance to win the Big 12 and a 36.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Kansas State is just behind the Knights with a 25.1% chance to win the league and a 33.5% chance to make the Playoff. Utah is third among Big 12 teams, with a 10.4% chance to win the Big 12 and a 16.4% chance to make the CFP.
UCF is coming off an impressive comeback win over TCU in Fort Worth and erased a 28-7 lead to outlast the Horned Frogs, 35-34. The Knights are off this week and will pick things back up with a home game against Colorado on September 28.
