Baylor vs. USC: NCAA Women’s Tournament Preview and Prediction
Here is everything you need to know about Baylor and USC in our Bears vs. Trojans NCAA Women’s Tournament Sweet 16 preview.
No. 5 Baylor (26-7) vs. No. 1 USC (28-5)
Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. CT, Saturday, Moda Center, Portland, Ore., ESPN
All-time series (tied 1-1): The two teams played a home-and-home in 1999 and 2000, with Baylor winning the second meeting, 79-55, on Dec. 20, 2000, in Waco, Texas.
Winner: Advances to the Elite Eight on Sunday.
NCAA Tournament Results: Baylor: def. Vanderbilt, 80-63 (first round), def. Virginia Tech, 75-72 (second round); USC: def. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 84-55 (first round), def. Kansas, 73-55 (second round).
Projected starting lineups
Baylor: G Bella Fontleroy, G Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, G Jada Walker, G Sarah Andrews, G Aijha Blackwell.
USC: G McKenzie Forbes, G Kayla Padilla, G JuJu Watkins, C Rayah Marshall, F Kaitlyn Davis.
Players to watch
Baylor
G Sarah Andrews
For those in the Big 12 hoping that this might be it for Andrews, well she announced a few weeks ago that she would return for one final season with the Bears, triggering that COVID waiver. But Andrews would rather make a run now, knowing that opportunities to get this far in the NCAA Tournament are precious. Andrews struggled a bit down the stretch of the regular season, but in the NCAA Tournament so far she’s been a big part of the puzzle. She scored 13 points and dished out five assists against Vanderbilt, and then scored 16 points, with three assists and three rebounds, against Virginia Tech. Expect Andrews to step up again on Saturday.
USC
G JuJu Watkins
I mean, did you watch the Kansas game? Yes, Kansas managed to frustrate the star freshman a little bit in the second quarter with a zone defense. But great ones adjust, and Watkins — just named a finalist for National Player of the Year — is one of the best in the country. She finished off the Jayhawks with 28 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and two steals. At one point Kansas was within a point of USC in the third quarter and Watkins drained a 3-pointer and took over the game. She ended up dropping in four 3-pointers for the game. USC legend Cheryl Miller was in the house. The arena was full and Watkins soaked up the moment. That’s what great ones do.
Key storylines
Baylor
This is the jolt the program needed under third-year coach Nicki Collen. Baylor’s first two NCAA Tournament with Collen in charge ended with losses in the second round. At Baylor, that won’t do. In fact, the last time Baylor had back-to-back seasons without reaching the second weekend of the tournament was in 2007 and 2008. So getting back to the Sweet 16 is a big deal. The Bears had to win a nail-biter with Virginia Tech and it was Jada Walker who had her best game of the season at the best possible time. She erupted for 28 points and showed that she can be more than a rotational player. But if you saw her play her first two seasons at Kentucky you already knew that. Still, the legacy at Baylor is Final Fours, not Sweet 16s. But this is a great step for Collen.
USC
Cheryl Miller put this program on the map in the 1980s, leading the Trojans to two national championships. Lisa Leslie became one of the college game’s iconic players after four seasons with USC in the 1990s. Since Leslie departed in 1994, when the program reached the Elite Eight, the Trojans made just six NCAA Tournament appearances and never advanced past the second round before this season. Watkins has changed the expectations and the Trojans are more than just their star freshman. After she exploded against Stanford in February, the Cardinal held her to nine points in the Pac-12 Tournament on March 10. The Trojans won anyway. Coach Lindsey Gottlieb, who returned to college basketball after a two-year stint as a Cleveland Cavaliers assistant, is taking USC back to familiar territory.
Prediction
USC 79, Baylor 73. Baylor can have all the plans they want for Watkins (and Collen will have plenty). But veteran guard McKenzie Forbes and 6-foot-6 center Clarice Akunwafo are problems, too.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
