Conference play has officially arrived in the Big 12, and UCF has an early leg up on the rest of the league with a 1-0 record after knocking off TCU in Fort Worth, 35-34.
The Knights prevailing over the Horned Frogs wasn’t the only notable storyline coming out of Week 3. We saw Kansas State put a hurtin’ on Arizona, plus a few surprises that left the Big 12 Power Rankings in an unexpected place after three weeks.
So, as we enter league play, what can we take as gospel, and what should we take with a grain of salt? Let’s discuss it in this week’s edition of Overreaction Monday.
It’s Time to Hit the Panic Button in Lawrence
Overreaction: A 1-2 start is definitely not what folks in Lawrence had in mind when fall camp wrapped in August, but it’s not time to start hurling tomatoes as the Kansas staff yet, either. Yes, Jalon Daniels has struggled mightily through three weeks, and the offensive playcalling has been lackluster at best, but let’s take a look at some realities. UNLV is 3-0 (2-0 against the Big 12) and is one of a few G5 contenders to make the College Football Playoff. Illinois is 3-0 and ranked No. 24 in the latest poll, and if not for multiple turnovers, Kansas likely wins that game on the road.
The Kansas defense has played very well given its circumstances this season, and that should give the Jayhawks some time to get things figured out offense. Jeff Grimes has not been good — that much I’ll give you — but it’s been three games, and he’s not the only one at fault here.
Arizona State and BYU Should Be Taken Seriously
Not an Overreaction: Getting to 3-0 in nonconference play is difficult, regardless of who you play. But picking up nonconference wins on the road — and as underdogs, no less — is a huge accomplishment for any team.
The fact that Arizona State and BYU were able to come out of the nonconference portion of their schedule without any losses is a testament to their toughness and grit as football teams. Kenny Dillingham’s squad took down Mississippi State at home and then went on the road to a good Texas State squad and came back to win that game in a tough environment. Quarterback Sam Leavitt looks like he’s going to be a problem, and Cam Skattebo might be the most undervalued player in college football right now.
Meanwhile, Baylor picked up a huge nonconference win at SMU in Week 2 and followed that up by dominating Wyoming in Laramie (WY) this past weekend. The Cougars’ defense has been lights out, and the offense is starting to take some steps in the right direction. With as wide-open as the Big 12 appears to be this season (more on that in a bit), there’s not a team in this league that can afford to be overlooked — and that includes the Sun Devils and Cougars.
UCF is a Real Threat to Win the Big 12
Not an Overreaction: One of the biggest questions going into Week 3 was whether or not UCF could continue having incredible success running the football when it’s competition started to get better. The Knights answered that question against TCU with a resounding “Yes.”
UCF racked up 289 yards on the ground against the Horned Frogs and RJ Harvey has been the most explosive running back in the country to this point in the season. Through three games, UCF ranks second nationally (behind only Army) with 375.7 rushing yards per game. Additionally, KJ Jefferson appears to have found his footing in the passing game with 230 yards and three touchdowns through the air.
With a punishing offense and a defense that has been much better against the run, UCF is a team that should be taken very seriously as a contender in the Big 12 race, and perhaps one of the favorites.
Houston Just Won It’s Only Game of the Season
Overreaction: Coming into the 2024 season, Houston was picked to finish second-to-last in the Big 12 as Willie Fritz starts the process of retooling the Cougars’ roster. However, the last to weeks have shown that there might be more fight in H-Town than folks had anticipated.
After taking Oklahoma to the wire in a 16-12 defeat last week, Houston opened up a can on crosstown rival, Rice, in a 33-7 blowout win. The Cougars’ defense has been much better than expected and the offense has seemed to find something that works after a putrid start to the year in Las Vegas.
Is Houston a bowl team? Probably not, but it isn’t as far-fetched as some might have you believe. The Cougars will probably have a chance to win several games this season with how Fritz is able t keep games close, and if they can capitalize on a couple of those, who knows what will happen. It was popular just to pencil in a win for anyone facing Houston when predicting schedules in the preseason. Still, the Coogs appear to be tougher than anticipated, at least early on.
This is the Most Wide-Open Big 12 Race Ever
Not an Overreaction: After three weeks of action, there are seven Big 12 teams who’ve yet to drop a game. The favorites to win the league — Utah, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State — are all unbeaten, but certainly not without their blemishes. Cam Rising has already missed a game with an injury, K-State has been a little up and down over the last two games, and Oklahoma State needed double-overtime to beat an Arkansas team that trailed against UAB at halftime this week.
When you add the way that Iowa State, UCF, Arizona State, and even BYU have looked, you’ve got schedules riddled with land mines all across the conference. How much scarier does Kansas State’s trip to Provo look this weekend than it did a few weeks ago? Is it just a foregone conclusion that Utah goes into Tempe on a Friday night and walks out with a win? How about the Utes’ trip to Orlando to end the regular season?
The Big 12 is undoubtedly the most competitive league among the Power Four conferences entering Week 4, and nobody in their right mind can say that their squad is a shoo-in for Arlington at this point. But, that’s what will make this the most wide-open Big 12 race that we’ve seen in some time, and the road to the Championship Game in December is going as memorable as we’ve ever had.
