Newton’s third law of motion says that for every action, there is an equal but opposite reaction. The same can be said for many things, one of which is the Stock Market Indicator, a metric used by Phil Steele to predict whether a team’s record will improve, get worse, or remain the same in a given year.
After taking a look at the bull market, which included three Big 12 schools among the four most likely to see an improved record in 2024, now it’s time to take a look at the opposite side of the coin. Which Big 12 teams can you expect to have a worse record than they put together in 2023?
Steele’s Stock Market Indicator (SMI), which is calculated using the previous year’s win total compared to the two years prior, has generally provided a good forecast for what a team’s record should look like in the year ahead. For example, since 1990, there have been 60 teams with a stock market indicator of -6.0 or lower, and only six of them saw an improved record the following year.
Being one of the bear market teams in college football is not necessarily where teams want to find themselves heading into a season, but that’s where the Arizona Wildcats find themselves and at the top of the list, no less, with an SMI of -7.0.
After going 10-3 in 2023, the Wildcats lost head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington but were able to retain the vast majority of their roster for first-year head coach Brent Brennan. However, it appears an 11-win season is very unlikely if this is any indication.
Another Big 12 team shows up among the top 10 bear market teams, too, with Kansas having an SMI of -5.0 after winning nine games in 2023.
The Wildcats and Jayhawks could be the exception to this rule, as both programs look to be trending in a positive direction after languishing in the cellars of the Pac-12 and Big 12 for so many years.
