With the 2024 season marking the inaugural year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, there have been a lot of questions as to what that will look like and how the committee will determine who gets in. Here is the current format of the new playoff system.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive a first-round bye, while seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round, with the higher-seeded teams hosting their first-round games.
New Year’s Six bowl games will be introduced in the quarterfinal round. The semifinals will be played in bowls on a rotating basis, while the national championship host site is determined through bids by prospective host sites.
The quarterfinal host sites are the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl, while the semifinal sites will be the Cotton and Orange Bowl. This season, the national championship will be held in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
The new format guarantees that the Big 12 champion will get in no matter what, which is great. However, is it possible for the Big 12 to get two teams into the new 12-team playoff?
Can The Big 12 Realistically Get Two Teams In?
As much as I love this conference, I am also realistic. The most likely scenario of the Big 12 getting two teams in is the conference champion and a one-loss team that suffered their first loss in the conference title game. That means that a team would have to go 12-0 in the regular season before dropping their first game. Going 12-0 in the Big 12 is going to be extremely tough for any team.
But what about a two-loss Big 12 team? Could they get in? It would be next to impossible, in my opinion. Unless you have an SEC logo on your jersey or a Big Ten logo, good luck getting in with two losses.
It pains me to say that, but it is true. The SEC and Big Ten get treated differently. If you don’t believe that, then you have had your head buried in the sand for too long.
Comparing Playoff Teams Nonconference Schedules
Recently, on our message boards, there was an interesting thread talking about the Big 12’s nonconference schedule. This year seems to be a little lighter than last season, but the question that some people had is, should Big 12 teams schedule tougher nonconference games for playoff purposes? I decided to do a little research of my own and took a look at playoff teams over the last three seasons to see who they played out of conference. Some of these were interesting, to say the least.
2023 Season
Michigan: East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green
Alabama: Middle Tennessee, Texas, @ South Florida, Chattanooga
Washington: Boise State, Tulsa, @ Michigan State
Texas: Rice, @Alabama, Wyoming
2022 Season
Georgia: Oregon (neutral site), Samford, Kent State, Georgia Tech
Ohio State: Notre Dame, Arkansas State, Toledo
Michigan: Colorado State, Hawaii, UConn
TCU: @Colorado, Tarleton State, @SMU
2021 Season
Alabama: Miami (neutral site), Mercer, Southern Miss, New Mexico State
Cincinnati: Miami (OH), Murray State, @Indiana, @Notre Dame
Michigan: Western Michigan, Washington, Northern Illinois
Georgia: Clemson (neutral site), UAB, Charleston Southern, @Georgia Tech
How Does The SEC Get Away With This?
One of the first things that sticks out to me is the SEC. The fact that they have been getting away with playing eight conference games for years is absolutely disgusting. While everyone is out there playing nine conference games, they are playing one less for their precious cupcake on November weekend.
No team from ANY conference should be playing Chattanooga or New Mexico State in late November (looking at you, Alabama). I understand why the SEC does it, though. Their teams don’t beat up on each other as much, which prevents schools from being bounced out of the top 25, and playing that cupcake game in November helps a lot of their schools become bowl-eligible. I am sorry, but you should not be bowl-eligible if you are a school from a power conference playing four cupcake games and only winning two conference games. That doesn’t sit well with me at all.
The other school that caught my eye was Michigan. While they have beefed up their nonconference schedule in the future, look at their nonconference schedules in the years they have made the postseason. Over the last three seasons, they have played East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Colorado State, Hawaii, UConn, Western Michigan, Washington, and Northern Illinois. Are they even trying? Not at all, but they can get away with it.
Should the Big 12 Change Its Scheduling?
Should schools from the Big 12 do the same? Play three cupcake games before conference play? It would make more Big 12 teams bowl-eligible and keep certain teams in the playoff hunt. But the same problem would remain. Outside of winning a conference title, a two-loss Big 12 team would not make it to the playoffs.
The only way a Big 12 team with two losses would have a shot is if they played a strong non-conference schedule. Beating an SEC team (like it or not) carries weight in the eyes of the playoff committee, and when comparing two-loss teams, it could be the difference between getting in or not getting in. But with this playoff committee, I wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them when it comes to schools that aren’t in the SEC or Big Ten.
In a perfect world, I would have every power school play the same amount of conference games. When it comes to nonconference scheduling, I would have each power school play a team from the FCS, a group of five, and one school from a different power conference. However, the world of college football is not perfect. Getting everyone to agree on something is about as easy as getting politicians to agree on anything. No matter what side of the fence you are on about the nonconference scheduling for the Big 12, the most important thing is winning games. No matter if you roll the dice by playing a power school or take it easy by playing a bunch of nobodies, you must win no matter what.
