Oklahoma vs. Florida State Softball: Norman Super Regional Preview and Prediction
The Norman Super Regional will get underway on Thursday, May 23, as No. 2 Oklahoma plays host to No. 15 Florida State in a rematch of last year’s National Championship series.
The Sooners and Seminoles will play a best-of-three series to determine which of them will punch their ticket to Oklahoma City for the 2024 Women’s College World Series. Here’s everything you need to know before the matchup.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Oklahoma Sooners (52-6)
Oklahoma earned the Big 12 auto-bid after defeating Texas 5-1 in the Big 12 Championship. The Sooners got the No. 2 seed and hosted Oregon, Boston, and Cleveland State in the Norman Regional this weekend. OU topped Cleveland State 9-0 before beating Oregon 6-3 on Saturday to advance to the regional final. There, the Sooners beat the Ducks a second time–this time 3-2–to advance to the Supers.
Florida State Seminoles (46-14)
Florida State battled all the way to the ACC Tournament Championship before losing to Duke, 6-3. After their second-place finish in the ACC, the Seminoles landed the No. 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament and played host to Auburn, UCF, and Chattanooga. After a 3-2 nailbiter over Chattanooga, Florida State took down UCF 5-1 to advance to Sunday. There, the Noles dispatched Auburn 10-4 to advance to Super Regional Weekend.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Oklahoma
(Last 10: 8-2; 70 runs scored, 30 runs allowed)
Offense
- Batting Avg: .365 (2nd)
- On Base %: .471 (1st)
- Runs Per Game: 8.07 (3rd)
- Slugging %: .651 (2nd)
Pitching/Defense
- ERA: 1.82 (6th)
- K/BB: 3.18 (13th)
- Opp. Avg: .187
- Fielding %: .980 (2nd)
- Errors: 29 (T-3rd)
Florida State
(Last 10: 6-4; 57 runs scored, 49 runs allowed)
Offense
- Batting Avg: .336 (8th)
- On Base %: .421 (6th)
- Runs Per Game: 7.52 (6th)
- Slugging %: .581 (6th)
Pitching/Defense
- ERA: 3.60 (138th)
- K/BB: 1.54 (149th)
- Opp. Avg: .259
- Fielding %: .969 (54th)
- Errors: 52 (T-87th)
SCHEDULE
LOVE’S FIELD | NORMAN, OKLAHOMA | MAY 23-25
- Thursday, May 23
- Game 1: (2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Florida State | 6 p.m. | ESPN2
- Friday, May 24
- Game 2: (2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Florida State | 7 p.m.
- Saturday, May 25
- Game 3 if necessary: TBD
KEY MATCHUP
Ashtyn Danley vs. Oklahoma Offense
Florida State’s top option in the circle has been freshman left-hander Asthyn Danley (3.12 ERA). Danley’s 137.0 IP leads the Noles by a wide margin (Makenna Reid, 87.1 IP), and she’s got experience against offenses of Oklahoma’s caliber. In 20.2 IP against Top 25 offenses, Danley has allowed 23 runs (18 ER) on 29 hits with 11 BBs and 17 Ks. That breaks down to a 6.09 ERA with a 1.55 K/BB ratio. While the Sooners’ offense certainly isn’t immune to the occasional slump, those numbers have got to have OU feeling good about their chances at the plate in this series.
SERIES PREDICTION
This has a chance to be one of the most entertaining Super Regionals of the weekend, with two of the nation’s top offenses colliding in a ballpark that was made for home run hitters. Florida State’s offense has been its saving grace in 2024, but when facing elite pitchers, the Noles have been less than stellar.
Florida State has a record of 3-6 against the Top 25 pitching staffs (in ERA), with an average of just over 4.5 runs per game. Oklahoma boasts the sixth-best ERA (1.82) in the nation and has played 19 games against Top 25 scoring offenses, going 14-5 in those contests.
FSU has the offense to hang with the Sooners, but I believe their downfall is in the circle. Asking freshman Ashtyn Danley to come into Norman and shut down the Oklahoma offense is a tall task, and while she’ll hold them for a little while, I believe the floodgates come open at some point.
Prediction: Oklahoma wins the series, 2-0
