Big 12 Previews

Oklahoma State vs. Arizona Softball: Stillwater Super Regional Preview and Prediction

By Bryan Clinton

Posted on May 21, 2024

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The Stillwater Super Regional will get underway on Friday, May 24, as No. 5 Oklahoma State plays host to Arizona in a future Big 12 matchup.

The Cowgirls and Wildcats will play a best-of-three series to determine which of them will punch their ticket to Oklahoma City for the 2024 Women’s College World Series. Here’s everything you need to know before the matchup.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Oklahoma State Cowgirls (47-10)

Oklahoma State finished third in the Big 12 standings despite winning the regular season series against Texas and Oklahoma, the two teams they finished behind. After beating Oklahoma twice in Norman to end the regular season, the Pokes fell to BYU in the Big 12 Tournament, 7-2. Despite that, Kenny Gajewski’s group was rewarded with the No. 5 seed, allowing them to host through Super Regionals. Last week, in the Stillwater Regional, Oklahoma State took down Northern Colorado (6-0) on Friday, Kentucky (6-2) on Saturday, and Michigan on Sunday (4-1) to advance to this weekend.

 

Arizona Wildcats (37-16-1)

The Arizona Wildcats finished fifth in the Pac-12 this season with a 13-11 record and as the No. 5 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, took down No. 4 seed Washington to advance to the semifinals. There, top-seeded UCLA would end their run with a 6-5 victory, but that wasn’t the end for a proud program like UA. The Wildcats earned the No. 2 seed in the Fayetteville Regional and started their tournament off with a 14-3 (5 inn.) win over Villanova. On Saturday, Arizona sent the host team, No. 12 seed Arkansas, to the loser’s bracket with a 2-1 win. The Razorbacks were then upset by Villanova, who Arizona consequently beat a second time on Sunday (9-4) to advance to the Stillwater Super Regional.

TALE OF THE TAPE

 

SCHEDULE

COWGIRL STADIUM | STILLWATER, OKLAHOMA | MAY 24-26  

• Friday, May 24
  • Game 1: (5) Oklahoma State vs. Arizona | 7 p.m. | ESPNU
• Saturday, May 25
  • Game 2: (5) Oklahoma State vs. Arizona | 6 p.m.
• Sunday, May 26
  • ​​​​​​​Game 3 if necessary: TBD

KEY MATCHUP

Lexi Kilfoyl vs. Arizona Offense

Lexi Kilfoyl is, without question, the best arm that either team has at their disposal heading into this series, and it’s not particularly close. The Cowgirls’ ace ranks second nationally with a 1.08 ERA in 155.0 IP and, outside of NiJaree Canady, will be the best player that Arizona has seen in the circle all season long. Oklahoma State’s ace is as battle-tested as they come, having pitched 60.2 innings against Top 25 scoring offenses this year. In those outings, she holds an 11-2 overall record with a 1.24 ERA and a 3.42 K/BB ratio. Arizona’s offense ranks just outside the top 10 in nearly every category, but the test they’ll face in Stillwater will be figuring out what many have failed to do this year, and that’s how to hit Kilfoyl.

SERIES PREDICTION

Offensively, Arizona brings plenty of firepower to the table with a quartet of double-digit home run hitters this season, led by sophomore Dakota Kennedy, who ranks 12th nationally with a .529 OBP. Oklahoma State’s offense is nothing to scoff at either, as the Pokes put up more than enough runs to support one of the two best arms in America.

This Oklahoma State team’s ceiling is as high as Lexi Kilfoyl can take them, and that’s not a knock on the rest of the team–that’s just how good she’s been in crunch time this year. While Arizona is riding a wave of momentum after going unscathed through the Fayetteville Regional, I think they’re run will end in Stillwater.

Now, I will say this. If the duo of Aissa Silva and Miranda Stoddard can keep a cap on the Cowgirls offense, I think they will win the second game of this series. However, they’ll have to face No. 8 more often than not, and the elite right-hander will be the reason why OSU keeps moving, and Arizona goes back to Tucson to prepare for 2025.

Prediction: Oklahoma State wins the series, 2-1